TrueOdds Lab

Süper Lig · Mon 2 Nov 2026, 17:00 UK

Genclerbirligi vs Alanyaspor prediction

Eryaman Stadyumu · Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK

Full time: Genclerbirligi 5–0 Alanyaspor

Win, draw or lose

Genclerbirligi win35.4%fair odds 2.82
Draw28.1%fair odds 3.55
Alanyaspor win36.5%fair odds 2.74

Alanyaspor are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 36% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 40% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Genclerbirligi 35%, draw 31%, Alanyaspor 34%.

Double chance72%Genclerbirligi or Alanyaspor · fair 1.39
Goals54%Under 2.5 · fair 1.85
Both teams to score52%yes · fair 1.93
Expected goals1.25 – 1.27Genclerbirligi – Alanyaspor

How the forecast did

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 1.038; closing market: 1.040. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Genclerbirligi16th89LLDLL
Alanyaspor12th129DWDLL
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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): c0d4d5872cde…937c84. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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