Championship · Sat 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Cardiff vs Birmingham prediction

Cardiff City Stadium · Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK

Full time: Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham

Win, draw or lose

Cardiff win39.1%fair odds 2.56

Draw25.7%fair odds 3.89

Birmingham win35.2%fair odds 2.84

Cardiff are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 39% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 36% of the time.

Double chance74%Cardiff or Birmingham · fair 1.35

Goals50%Over 2.5 · fair 2.00

Both teams to score55%yes · fair 1.82

Expected goals1.37 – 1.31Cardiff – Birmingham

How the forecast did

Most likely outcome: Cardiff win (39%)came in ✓
Double chance: Cardiff or Birmingham (74%)came in ✓
More likely on goals: over 2.5didn't come in ✗
More likely: both teams to scoredidn't come in ✗

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 0.940; closing market: 1.002. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

Team	Pos	Pts	Pl	Form
Cardiff	19th	11	11	LWLWD
Birmingham	5th	20	11	WDWWW

Open in the app All Championship predictions

How this forecast was made

Bookmaker prices were not available yet at publication, so this forecast comes from our team rating model (goals, form and home advantage, tested on past seasons). Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 6ad30d42bd7a…67f9a1. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

Download this round · How to check it yourself