Championship · Sat 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

West Ham vs Southampton prediction

London Stadium · Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK

Full time: West Ham 2–3 Southampton

Win, draw or lose

West Ham win52.4%fair odds 1.91

Draw21.3%fair odds 4.69

Southampton win26.3%fair odds 3.81

West Ham are favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 52% this outcome fails about 5 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 52% of the time.

Double chance79%West Ham or Southampton · fair 1.27

Goals63%Over 2.5 · fair 1.60

Both teams to score63%yes · fair 1.58

Expected goals1.86 – 1.37West Ham – Southampton

How the forecast did

Most likely outcome: West Ham win (52%)didn't come in ✗
Double chance: West Ham or Southampton (79%)came in ✓
More likely on goals: over 2.5came in ✓
More likely: both teams to scorecame in ✓

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 1.337; closing market: 1.586. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

Team	Pos	Pts	Pl	Form
West Ham	2nd	22	11	WDDWW
Southampton	4th	21	11	WLWWD

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How this forecast was made

Bookmaker prices were not available yet at publication, so this forecast comes from our team rating model (goals, form and home advantage, tested on past seasons). Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 6ad30d42bd7a…67f9a1. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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