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Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov 2026, 15:45 UK

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction

AFAS Stadion · Published 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UK

Kick-off has passed — the result is added after the next data update

Win, draw or lose

AZ Alkmaar win63.4%fair odds 1.58
Draw19.7%fair odds 5.07
Groningen win16.9%fair odds 5.91

AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 63% this outcome fails about 4 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 72% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: AZ Alkmaar 52%, draw 24%, Groningen 24%.

Double chance83%AZ Alkmaar or draw · fair 1.20
Goals69%Over 2.5 · fair 1.46
Both teams to score63%yes · fair 1.59
Expected goals2.37 – 1.17AZ Alkmaar – Groningen

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
AZ Alkmaar5th2011WLDLL
Groningen8th1511WWLDL
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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): c5223fd97478…ffe5a4. It is in entry #2 of our public log, recorded 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UTC, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 7 Nov 2026, 08:04 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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