TrueOdds Lab

Greek Super League · Mon 2 Nov 2026, 17:30 UK

Kalamata vs Iraklis prediction

Kalamata · Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK

Full time: Kalamata 1–1 Iraklis

Win, draw or lose

Kalamata win42.3%fair odds 2.36
Draw28.6%fair odds 3.49
Iraklis win29.0%fair odds 3.44

Kalamata are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 42% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 41% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Kalamata 45%, draw 25%, Iraklis 30%.

Double chance71%Kalamata or Iraklis · fair 1.40
Goals56%Under 2.5 · fair 1.77
Both teams to score49%yes · fair 2.03
Expected goals1.35 – 1.07Kalamata – Iraklis

How the forecast did

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 1.251; closing market: 1.238. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Kalamata8th108WLWWL
Iraklis9th98DDWLL
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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 98f0595de3ae…02f32d. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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