Ligue 2 · Mon 2 Nov 2026, 19:45 UK
Red Star FC vs Nancy prediction
Full time: Red Star FC 1–4 Nancy
Win, draw or lose
Red Star FC are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 42% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.
In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 43% of the time.
Our rating model, as a second opinion: Red Star FC 49%, draw 28%, Nancy 24%.
How the forecast did
- Most likely outcome: Red Star FC win (42%)didn't come in ✗
- Double chance: Red Star FC or Nancy (73%)came in ✓
- More likely on goals: under 2.5didn't come in ✗
- More likely: both teams to scorecame in ✓
Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 1.170; closing market: 1.088. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.
Table and form at publication
| Team | Pos | Pts | Pl | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Star FC | 6th | 17 | 10 | WWWLL |
| Nancy | 4th | 19 | 10 | LWWWW |
How this forecast was made
Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.
Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works
Proof this forecast wasn't edited
Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 6446af0c06e0…e6b382. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.