League Two · Sat 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Exeter vs Fleetwood Town prediction

St James Park · Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK

Full time: Exeter 2–1 Fleetwood Town

Win, draw or lose

Exeter win42.5%fair odds 2.35

Draw33.1%fair odds 3.02

Fleetwood Town win24.3%fair odds 4.11

Exeter are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 43% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 46% of the time.

Double chance76%Exeter or draw · fair 1.32

Goals65%Under 2.5 · fair 1.53

Both teams to score42%yes · fair 2.36

Expected goals1.21 – 0.88Exeter – Fleetwood Town

How the forecast did

Most likely outcome: Exeter win (43%)came in ✓
Double chance: Exeter or draw (76%)came in ✓
More likely on goals: under 2.5didn't come in ✗
More likely: both teams not to scoredidn't come in ✗

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 0.855; closing market: 0.934. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

Team	Pos	Pts	Pl	Form
Exeter	10th	16	12	LWWDW
Fleetwood Town	18th	14	12	LLDWL

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How this forecast was made

Bookmaker prices were not available yet at publication, so this forecast comes from our team rating model (goals, form and home advantage, tested on past seasons). Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 6011ba5a0fec…b65596. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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