League Two · Sat 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Gillingham vs Grimsby prediction

Priestfield Stadium · Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK

Full time: Gillingham 1–4 Grimsby

Win, draw or lose

Gillingham win36.8%fair odds 2.72

Draw29.5%fair odds 3.39

Grimsby win33.7%fair odds 2.97

Gillingham are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 37% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 44% of the time.

Double chance71%Gillingham or Grimsby · fair 1.42

Goals52%Under 2.5 · fair 1.94

Both teams to score54%yes · fair 1.84

Expected goals1.33 – 1.27Gillingham – Grimsby

How the forecast did

Most likely outcome: Gillingham win (37%)didn't come in ✗
Double chance: Gillingham or Grimsby (71%)came in ✓
More likely on goals: under 2.5didn't come in ✗
More likely: both teams to scorecame in ✓

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 1.087; closing market: 0.800. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

Team	Pos	Pts	Pl	Form
Gillingham	7th	17	12	LDWLD
Grimsby	17th	14	12	LLLLD

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How this forecast was made

Bookmaker prices were not available yet at publication, so this forecast comes from our team rating model (goals, form and home advantage, tested on past seasons). Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 6011ba5a0fec…b65596. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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