Premier League · Sat 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Arsenal vs Everton prediction

Emirates Stadium · Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK

Full time: Arsenal 2–0 Everton

Win, draw or lose

Arsenal win67.1%fair odds 1.49

Draw21.3%fair odds 4.69

Everton win11.5%fair odds 8.67

Arsenal are clear favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 67% this outcome fails about 3 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 72% of the time.

Double chance88%Arsenal or draw · fair 1.13

Goals55%Under 2.5 · fair 1.83

Both teams to score43%yes · fair 2.31

Expected goals1.77 – 0.72Arsenal – Everton

How the forecast did

Most likely outcome: Arsenal win (67%)came in ✓
Double chance: Arsenal or draw (88%)came in ✓
More likely on goals: under 2.5came in ✓
More likely: both teams not to scorecame in ✓

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 0.399; closing market: 0.325. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

Team	Pos	Pts	Pl	Form
Arsenal	2nd	18	7	WWLWW
Everton	8th	10	7	DDWDL

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How this forecast was made

Bookmaker prices were not available yet at publication, so this forecast comes from our team rating model (goals, form and home advantage, tested on past seasons). Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 450c7f28d5d3…272e9e. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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