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Premier League · Sat 24 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK

Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction

Villa Park · Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK

Full time: Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City

Win, draw or lose

Aston Villa win23.2%fair odds 4.30
Draw22.4%fair odds 4.46
Manchester City win54.3%fair odds 1.84

Manchester City are favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 54% this outcome fails about 5 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 51% of the time.

Double chance78%Aston Villa or Manchester City · fair 1.29
Goals58%Over 2.5 · fair 1.74
Both teams to score59%yes · fair 1.70
Expected goals1.20 – 1.79Aston Villa – Manchester City

How the forecast did

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 1.460; closing market: 1.596. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Aston Villa12th87DLWDW
Manchester City1st217WWWWW
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How this forecast was made

Bookmaker prices were not available yet at publication, so this forecast comes from our team rating model (goals, form and home advantage, tested on past seasons). Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 450c7f28d5d3…272e9e. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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