Premier League · Sun 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Manchester United vs Bournemouth prediction

Old Trafford · Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK

Full time: Manchester United 0–3 Bournemouth

Win, draw or lose

Manchester United win50.4%fair odds 1.98

Draw23.3%fair odds 4.29

Bournemouth win26.3%fair odds 3.80

Manchester United are favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 50% this outcome fails about 5 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 51% of the time.

Double chance77%Manchester United or Bournemouth · fair 1.30

Goals57%Over 2.5 · fair 1.76

Both teams to score59%yes · fair 1.69

Expected goals1.70 – 1.25Manchester United – Bournemouth

How the forecast did

Most likely outcome: Manchester United win (50%)didn't come in ✗
Double chance: Manchester United or Bournemouth (77%)came in ✓
More likely on goals: over 2.5came in ✓
More likely: both teams to scoredidn't come in ✗

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 1.334; closing market: 1.094. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

Team	Pos	Pts	Pl	Form
Manchester United	13th	7	7	DLDDD
Bournemouth	15th	6	7	DDLLW

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How this forecast was made

Bookmaker prices were not available yet at publication, so this forecast comes from our team rating model (goals, form and home advantage, tested on past seasons). Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 24 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 450c7f28d5d3…272e9e. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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