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Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov 2026, 19:45 UK

Lens vs Marseille prediction

Stade Bollaert-Delelis · Published 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UK

Upcoming · forecast frozen at publication

Win, draw or lose

Lens win43.7%fair odds 2.29
Draw24.0%fair odds 4.16
Marseille win32.3%fair odds 3.10

Lens are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 44% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 43% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Lens 48%, draw 24%, Marseille 28%.

Double chance76%Lens or Marseille · fair 1.32
Goals65%Over 2.5 · fair 1.54
Both teams to score66%yes · fair 1.51
Expected goals1.81 – 1.54Lens – Marseille

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Lens9th139LWWWL
Marseille6th159LWWWW
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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 4a0ad3edefcf…ada7b8. It is in entry #2 of our public log, recorded 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UTC, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 7 Nov 2026, 08:04 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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