Ligue 1 · Mon 2 Nov 2026, 19:45 UK

Lorient vs Brest prediction

Stade du Moustoir · Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK

Full time: Lorient 0–2 Brest

Win, draw or lose

Lorient win38.6%fair odds 2.59

Draw28.4%fair odds 3.52

Brest win33.0%fair odds 3.03

Lorient are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 39% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 38% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Lorient 46%, draw 27%, Brest 27%.

Double chance72%Lorient or Brest · fair 1.40

Goals53%Under 2.5 · fair 1.88

Both teams to score52%yes · fair 1.91

Expected goals1.33 – 1.21Lorient – Brest

How the forecast did

Most likely outcome: Lorient win (39%)didn't come in ✗
Double chance: Lorient or Brest (72%)came in ✓
More likely on goals: under 2.5came in ✓
More likely: both teams to scoredidn't come in ✗

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 1.110; closing market: 1.162. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

Team	Pos	Pts	Pl	Form
Lorient	10th	12	8	DLWWD
Brest	14th	9	8	LLWDL

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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 39b1b51e3c7c…a0c0bf. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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