Serie A · Mon 2 Nov 2026, 19:45 UK

Atalanta vs Parma prediction

New Balance Arena · Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK

Full time: Atalanta 0–3 Parma

Win, draw or lose

Atalanta win65.5%fair odds 1.53

Draw20.3%fair odds 4.93

Parma win14.2%fair odds 7.02

Atalanta are clear favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 65% this outcome fails about 3 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 71% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Atalanta 63%, draw 25%, Parma 13%.

Double chance86%Atalanta or draw · fair 1.17

Goals58%Over 2.5 · fair 1.71

Both teams to score53%yes · fair 1.90

Expected goals2.14 – 0.90Atalanta – Parma

How the forecast did

Most likely outcome: Atalanta win (65%)didn't come in ✗
Double chance: Atalanta or draw (86%)didn't come in ✗
More likely on goals: over 2.5came in ✓
More likely: both teams to scoredidn't come in ✗

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 1.948; closing market: 2.150. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

Team	Pos	Pts	Pl	Form
Atalanta	13th	11	9	LWLDD
Parma	18th	5	9	WLLLD

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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 9794006a97b8…521644. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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