TrueOdds Lab

Serie A · Mon 2 Nov 2026, 17:30 UK

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction

Mapei Stadium · Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK

Full time: Sassuolo 2–4 Fiorentina

Win, draw or lose

Sassuolo win33.7%fair odds 2.97
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.96
Fiorentina win41.0%fair odds 2.44

Fiorentina are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 41% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 45% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Sassuolo 35%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 38%.

Double chance75%Sassuolo or Fiorentina · fair 1.34
Goals61%Over 2.5 · fair 1.63
Both teams to score63%yes · fair 1.58
Expected goals1.49 – 1.66Sassuolo – Fiorentina

How the forecast did

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 0.891; closing market: 0.848. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Sassuolo15th89LDLLL
Fiorentina17th59DLLLD
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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 9794006a97b8…521644. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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