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Segunda División · Mon 2 Nov 2026, 20:00 UK

Mallorca vs Cadiz prediction

Son Moix · Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK

Full time: Mallorca 2–1 Cadiz

Win, draw or lose

Mallorca win65.3%fair odds 1.53
Draw21.7%fair odds 4.60
Cadiz win13.0%fair odds 7.70

Mallorca are clear favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 65% this outcome fails about 3 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 66% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Mallorca 55%, draw 29%, Cadiz 16%.

Double chance87%Mallorca or draw · fair 1.15
Goals50%Under 2.5 · fair 1.99
Both teams to score45%yes · fair 2.23
Expected goals1.93 – 0.73Mallorca – Cadiz

How the forecast did

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 0.426; closing market: 0.390. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Mallorca8th1911LDWDD
Cadiz19th1011DWLLW
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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 8994eb6a36d0…766c9c. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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