Segunda División · Mon 2 Nov 2026, 17:30 UK

Valladolid vs Leganes prediction

José Zorrilla · Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK

Full time: Valladolid 4–3 Leganes

Win, draw or lose

Valladolid win53.3%fair odds 1.88

Draw25.4%fair odds 3.94

Leganes win21.3%fair odds 4.69

Valladolid are favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 53% this outcome fails about 5 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 54% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Valladolid 44%, draw 32%, Leganes 24%.

Double chance79%Valladolid or draw · fair 1.27

Goals53%Under 2.5 · fair 1.89

Both teams to score49%yes · fair 2.03

Expected goals1.63 – 0.93Valladolid – Leganes

How the forecast did

Most likely outcome: Valladolid win (53%)came in ✓
Double chance: Valladolid or draw (79%)came in ✓
More likely on goals: under 2.5didn't come in ✗
More likely: both teams not to scoredidn't come in ✗

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 0.630; closing market: 0.655. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

Team	Pos	Pts	Pl	Form
Valladolid	16th	12	11	WDWLL
Leganes	17th	12	11	LLLLD

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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 8994eb6a36d0…766c9c. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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