La Liga · Mon 2 Nov 2026, 20:00 UK

Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna prediction

Riazor · Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK

Full time: Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 Osasuna

Win, draw or lose

Deportivo La Coruna win44.5%fair odds 2.25

Draw28.6%fair odds 3.49

Osasuna win26.8%fair odds 3.73

Deportivo La Coruna are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 45% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 43% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Deportivo La Coruna 48%, draw 29%, Osasuna 23%.

Double chance73%Deportivo La Coruna or draw · fair 1.37

Goals58%Under 2.5 · fair 1.73

Both teams to score48%yes · fair 2.09

Expected goals1.37 – 1.00Deportivo La Coruna – Osasuna

How the forecast did

Most likely outcome: Deportivo La Coruna win (45%)came in ✓
Double chance: Deportivo La Coruna or draw (73%)came in ✓
More likely on goals: under 2.5didn't come in ✗
More likely: both teams not to scoredidn't come in ✗

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 0.809; closing market: 0.775. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

Team	Pos	Pts	Pl	Form
Deportivo La Coruna	13th	11	10	LDLDL
Osasuna	15th	11	10	LDLWL

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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 9bbd0f6f685c…b51d91. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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