TrueOdds Lab

Premier League · Sun 8 Nov 2026, 16:30 UK

Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction

Old Trafford · Published 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UK

Kick-off has passed — the result is added after the next data update

Win, draw or lose

Manchester United win44.7%fair odds 2.24
Draw24.9%fair odds 4.01
Aston Villa win30.3%fair odds 3.30

Manchester United are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 45% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 41% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Manchester United 44%, draw 24%, Aston Villa 31%.

Double chance75%Manchester United or Aston Villa · fair 1.33
Goals61%Over 2.5 · fair 1.64
Both teams to score63%yes · fair 1.59
Expected goals1.74 – 1.40Manchester United – Aston Villa

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Manchester United17th79DDDLL
Aston Villa10th129WDWWD
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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): e2ce8c9065ca…683abb. It is in entry #2 of our public log, recorded 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UTC, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 7 Nov 2026, 08:04 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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