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Premier League · Sun 1 Nov 2026, 16:30 UK

Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction

Anfield · Published 1 Nov 2026, 07:05 UK

Full time: Liverpool 0–1 Arsenal

Win, draw or lose

Liverpool win32.1%fair odds 3.11
Draw27.2%fair odds 3.68
Arsenal win40.7%fair odds 2.46

Arsenal are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 41% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 41% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Liverpool 33%, draw 26%, Arsenal 41%.

Double chance73%Liverpool or Arsenal · fair 1.37
Goals51%Over 2.5 · fair 1.94
Both teams to score56%yes · fair 1.79
Expected goals1.27 – 1.46Liverpool – Arsenal

How the forecast did

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 0.899; closing market: 0.912. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Liverpool4th158DWLWW
Arsenal2nd218WLWWW
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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 1 Nov 2026, 07:05 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): c9b9746c8da6…7d27c8. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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