TrueOdds Lab

Premier League · Mon 2 Nov 2026, 20:00 UK

Newcastle vs Everton prediction

St James' Park · Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK

Full time: Newcastle 0–1 Everton

Win, draw or lose

Newcastle win41.6%fair odds 2.40
Draw26.1%fair odds 3.84
Everton win32.3%fair odds 3.09

Newcastle are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 42% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 41% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Newcastle 51%, draw 25%, Everton 24%.

Double chance74%Newcastle or Everton · fair 1.35
Goals56%Over 2.5 · fair 1.77
Both teams to score60%yes · fair 1.68
Expected goals1.57 – 1.37Newcastle – Everton

How the forecast did

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 1.129; closing market: 1.250. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Newcastle12th118LWLLW
Everton14th108DWDLL
Open in the appAll Premier League predictions

How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 39235d3ae76b…23295d. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

Download this round · How to check it yourself

More Premier League forecasts