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Primeira Liga · Sat 7 Nov 2026, 18:00 UK

Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction

Alverca do Ribatejo · Published 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UK

Kick-off has passed — the result is added after the next data update

Win, draw or lose

Alverca win54.9%fair odds 1.82
Draw25.1%fair odds 3.99
Casa Pia win20.1%fair odds 4.99

Alverca are favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 55% this outcome fails about 5 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 52% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Alverca 48%, draw 27%, Casa Pia 24%.

Double chance80%Alverca or draw · fair 1.25
Goals51%Under 2.5 · fair 1.97
Both teams to score50%yes · fair 1.99
Expected goals1.70 – 0.94Alverca – Casa Pia

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Alverca10th1110WWWLL
Casa Pia17th710LWLWL
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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 7ef4d2bfc4d5…b256b3. It is in entry #2 of our public log, recorded 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UTC, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 7 Nov 2026, 08:04 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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