TrueOdds Lab

Primeira Liga · Sun 8 Nov 2026, 20:30 UK

Estrela vs Benfica prediction

Estádio José Gomes · Published 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UK

Upcoming · forecast frozen at publication

Win, draw or lose

Estrela win7.7%fair odds 12.95
Draw14.2%fair odds 7.06
Benfica win78.1%fair odds 1.28

Benfica are clear favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 78% this outcome fails about 2 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 78% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Estrela 7%, draw 14%, Benfica 79%.

Double chance92%Benfica or draw · fair 1.08
Goals67%Over 2.5 · fair 1.49
Both teams to score50%yes · fair 2.00
Expected goals0.76 – 2.71Estrela – Benfica

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Estrela12th1010DLLLL
Benfica2nd2510WLWWW
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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 7ef4d2bfc4d5…b256b3. It is in entry #2 of our public log, recorded 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UTC, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 7 Nov 2026, 08:04 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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