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Primeira Liga · Sun 8 Nov 2026, 18:00 UK

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto prediction

Estádio D. Afonso Henriques · Published 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UK

Upcoming · forecast frozen at publication

Win, draw or lose

Vitoria Guimaraes win18.0%fair odds 5.55
Draw23.3%fair odds 4.29
Porto win58.7%fair odds 1.70

Porto are favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 59% this outcome fails about 4 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 60% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Vitoria Guimaraes 15%, draw 23%, Porto 61%.

Double chance82%Porto or draw · fair 1.22
Goals51%Over 2.5 · fair 1.94
Both teams to score51%yes · fair 1.98
Expected goals0.91 – 1.83Vitoria Guimaraes – Porto

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Vitoria Guimaraes13th910LDLWD
Porto1st3010WWWWW
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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): 7ef4d2bfc4d5…b256b3. It is in entry #2 of our public log, recorded 7 Nov 2026, 08:03 UTC, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 7 Nov 2026, 08:04 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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