TrueOdds Lab

Primeira Liga · Mon 2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UK

Benfica vs Alverca prediction

Estádio da Luz · Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK

Full time: Benfica 1–0 Alverca

Win, draw or lose

Benfica win83.7%fair odds 1.20
Draw11.3%fair odds 8.85
Alverca win5.0%fair odds 19.88

Benfica are clear favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 84% this outcome fails about 2 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 78% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Benfica 84%, draw 11%, Alverca 5%.

Double chance95%Benfica or draw · fair 1.05
Goals69%Over 2.5 · fair 1.44
Both teams to score44%yes · fair 2.25
Expected goals2.95 – 0.63Benfica – Alverca

How the forecast did

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 0.178; closing market: 0.140. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

TeamPosPtsPlForm
Benfica2nd229WWLWW
Alverca10th119LWWWL
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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): e7a01ad064e4…719e01. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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