Primeira Liga · Mon 2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UK

Gil Vicente vs Vitoria Guimaraes prediction

Estádio Cidade de Barcelos · Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK

Full time: Gil Vicente 0–0 Vitoria Guimaraes

Win, draw or lose

Gil Vicente win32.9%fair odds 3.04

Draw29.2%fair odds 3.43

Vitoria Guimaraes win37.9%fair odds 2.64

Vitoria Guimaraes are slight favourites. Most likely is not certain: at 38% this outcome fails about 6 times in 10.

In our backtest, forecasts at this confidence came in 40% of the time.

Our rating model, as a second opinion: Gil Vicente 39%, draw 29%, Vitoria Guimaraes 32%.

Double chance71%Gil Vicente or Vitoria Guimaraes · fair 1.41

Goals58%Under 2.5 · fair 1.73

Both teams to score49%yes · fair 2.06

Expected goals1.13 – 1.23Gil Vicente – Vitoria Guimaraes

How the forecast did

Most likely outcome: Vitoria Guimaraes win (38%)didn't come in ✗
Double chance: Gil Vicente or Vitoria Guimaraes (71%)didn't come in ✗
More likely on goals: under 2.5came in ✓
More likely: both teams not to scorecame in ✓

Forecast error (log loss) on this match: 1.232; closing market: 1.228. Lower is better — single matches are noisy, the season record below is what counts.

Table and form at publication

Team	Pos	Pts	Pl	Form
Gil Vicente	8th	14	9	LDWWL
Vitoria Guimaraes	13th	8	9	DLDLW

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How this forecast was made

Probabilities come from the average bookmaker price at the time of publication with the margin removed (Buchdahl's method) — the market is the most accurate public forecast. Our rating model is shown as a second opinion. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability: a price without the bookmaker's margin, not a tip to bet.

Published 2 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK, before kick-off. Published forecasts are never edited; the result is added after the match. How it works

Proof this forecast wasn't edited

Fingerprint of this round (SHA-256): e7a01ad064e4…719e01. It is in entry #1 of our public log, recorded 6 Nov 2026, 08:12 UTC — after publication: the log started then, so it proves the round has not changed since that date, and timestamped by an independent service (timestamp.sectigo.com, 6 Nov 2026, 08:13 UTC). If any number in this round changed, the fingerprint would no longer match.

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